After 32 games and 97 players — Matchday 1 complete, eight games into Matchday 2.
The big picture
Players love a favourite. The feeling isn’t mutual.
Players backed the fav
79%
Fav actually won
54%
On average 79% of players backed the favourite each game — but the favourite has won just 54% of the time. A 25-point gap, mostly paid for in draws.
Scoreline vs reality
Players’ favourite pick vs the most common result.
Players’ go-to
2–1
BUT
Most common result
1–1
2–1 was picked 405 times across the pool. The most common actual result? A 1–1 draw — seven times in 32 games.
Players call goals right — just not winners
Players: Over 2.5
50%
≈
Reality: Over 2.5
47%
Players read goal totals almost perfectly. It’s overrating the winner that keeps costing them.
By the numbers
100%
backed Spain — and nobody got it
All 97 players picked Spain to beat Cape Verde. Final score: 0–0. A clean zero on the result for everyone.
31%
of games ended in a draw
Ten of 32 matches. The draw is the tournament’s great leveller — and the biggest killer of chalk picks.
52%
of result picks landed
Just over half of all 1X2 calls were correct. When 79% back the same team every game, a 52% hit rate stings.
8%
of picks nailed the exact score
Across every prediction made, only about 1 in 12 got the exact scoreline right — the hardest part of the game.
3.0
goals per game
96 goals across 32 games. Germany’s 7–1 win over Curaçao has done a lot of the heavy lifting on that average.
7–1
Germany · highest scoring game
8 goals in Germany vs Curaçao — a rare night the brave Over-pickers were very well rewarded.
Top 5 · the race
| # | Player | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manwel Borg Canalis | 186.14 |
| 2 | Mark Camilleri | 184.78 |
| 3 | graziella chircop | 178.28 |
| 4 | Willi Barbara | 174.32 |
| 5 | Karl Vassallo | 172.58 |
Top 5 take the prize. The cut-off sits at 172.58 — and just 1.74 separates 5th from 4th. It’s tight at the top.
Favourite = the team most of the pool backed to win that match. Standings current after 32 games · prediction stats across all pool picks to date · 97 players.
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